opponent_adjusted_epa · Week 2 values READY backtest WAIT
Filed Quant Lab pack — model label · blind-safe for Power · not an Official · no market inputs. Numbers below are from the pack artifacts only.
Meta
- method:
opp_adj_epa_v0_iter2_precision_blend - created: 2026-09-17T15:49:06-05:00
- teams / games: 32 / 16
- w_prior: 0.8888888888888888
Caveats (filed)
- 2026 sample is week-1 only (n=1); shrink_weight_prior≈0.889
- 2025 defense inferred from opponent offensive EPA allowed
- No HFA in net_epa_adj_home_minus_away — Power owns HFA
- Not an Official and not a weekly lean — research input for Power’s blind seal only
- No market prices in inputs
Week-2 game join (filed)
| Matchup | home net | away net | home−away | HFA in net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ BUF | 0.1148 | 0.0792 | 0.0355 | False |
| CAR @ ATL | -0.0202 | -0.1073 | 0.0871 | False |
| CIN @ HOU | 0.0991 | -0.0799 | 0.1790 | False |
| CLE @ TB | -0.0348 | -0.1613 | 0.1266 | False |
| GB @ NYJ | -0.1985 | 0.0324 | -0.2309 | False |
| MIN @ CHI | 0.0594 | -0.0016 | 0.0609 | False |
| NO @ BAL | 0.0879 | -0.0197 | 0.1076 | False |
| PHI @ TEN | -0.2009 | 0.0903 | -0.2912 | False |
| PIT @ NE | 0.0723 | 0.0114 | 0.0608 | False |
| JAX @ DEN | 0.0393 | 0.1700 | -0.1307 | False |
| LV @ LAC | 0.0002 | -0.1534 | 0.1537 | False |
| MIA @ SF | 0.0832 | -0.1255 | 0.2086 | False |
| SEA @ ARI | -0.0094 | 0.1584 | -0.1677 | False |
| WAS @ DAL | -0.1006 | -0.1173 | 0.0167 | False |
| IND @ KC | 0.1157 | 0.0219 | 0.0938 | False |
| NYG @ LA | 0.1261 | -0.0313 | 0.1574 | False |